The Italian future of probability: sarà, avrà fatto

Italian often uses the future tense for something that is not in the future at all: a guess. «Sarà stanco» does not mean “he will be tired” but “he must be tired” or “he’s probably tired”. Grammars call this the futuro di probabilità, or epistemic future: the speaker does not know for sure, but draws a reasonable conclusion from what they see or know. English expresses the same idea with “must”, “probably”, “I suppose” or “I bet”.

Both future tenses can do it. The futuro semplice makes a guess about the present: «Il direttore non risponde: sarà in riunione» “The director isn’t answering: he must be in a meeting”. The futuro anteriore makes a guess about the past: «Non è venuto alla riunione: avrà avuto un contrattempo» “He didn’t come to the meeting: something must have come up”. The pattern is extremely common in everyday conversation, and it also appears in writing whenever an explanation is presented as likely rather than certain.

Guessing about the present: sarà, avrà, starà

For a guess about the present, take the verb you would use for a plain statement and put it in the futuro semplice. «È a casa» (a fact) becomes «Sarà a casa» (a guess); «Ha fame» becomes «Avrà fame»; «Costa molto» becomes «Costerà molto». The most frequent verbs by far are «essere» and «avere», but any verb works: «Lo saprà già», «Abiterà in centro».

Guesses about numbers are especially common: the time, someone’s age, a price, a distance. «Che ore sono? Saranno le sei.» «Quanti anni ha? Ne avrà una quarantina.» «Quanto costa il biglietto? Costerà sui venti euro.» For something happening right now, use the future of «stare» with a gerund: «Non risponde: starà guidando.»

In questions, the future turns a plain question into a wondering one, like English “I wonder” or “can”: «Chi sarà a quest’ora?» “Who can that be at this hour?”, «Che cosa vorrà da me?» “What can he want from me?”. Nobody is expected to know the answer for sure.

• Il negozio è chiuso: saranno in ferie. · The shop is closed: they must be on holiday.
• Senti che silenzio: i bambini staranno dormendo. · Listen how quiet it is: the children must be asleep.
• Chi sarà quel signore che parla con tuo padre? · I wonder who that man talking to your father is.

Guessing about the past: avrà fatto, sarà successo

For a guess about something that has already happened, use the futuro anteriore: the future of «avere» or «essere» plus the past participle. Think of it as a passato prossimo turned into a guess: «Ha perso il treno» (a fact) becomes «Avrà perso il treno». The usual auxiliary rules apply, so verbs like «partire», «uscire» and «succedere» take «essere» and the participle agrees: «Marta non c’è: sarà già uscita.»

This is the natural way to suggest an explanation for something you can observe: «Il frigo è vuoto: i ragazzi avranno fatto una festa.» «Ha la faccia stanca: avrà lavorato fino a tardi.» It is also how Italians ask themselves about things they cannot remember or understand: «Dove avrò messo le chiavi?» “Where on earth did I put my keys?”, «Cosa sarà successo?» “What can have happened?”, «Dove sarà finito il gatto?» “Where has the cat got to?”.

Be careful, because the futuro anteriore also has a purely temporal meaning: «Entro venerdì avrà finito» means “he will have finished by Friday”. A future time marker points to that meaning; present evidence, with no future reference, points to a guess.

• Luca è in ritardo: avrà trovato traffico in tangenziale. · Luca is late: he must have hit traffic on the ring road.
• Non mi ha più scritto: si sarà offesa. · She hasn’t written to me since: she must have taken offence.
• Ieri sera era stanchissimo: avrà dormito pochissimo. · He was exhausted last night: he can’t have slept much.

Real future or a guess? Reading the context

The future of probability uses exactly the same forms as the real future, so the difference lies entirely in the context. «Domani Anna sarà a Roma» is a plan or a prediction: there is a future time. «Anna non è in ufficio: sarà a Roma» is a guess about now: the sentence starts from something observed in the present. When there is no clue either way, Italians normally hear the future as real future time.

It also helps to place the future of probability on a scale of certainty. «È a casa» states a fact. «Deve essere a casa» and «Sarà a casa» are both confident conclusions, much like English “she must be at home”; «deve» sounds a little more like a logical deduction. «Forse è a casa» and «Può darsi che sia a casa» (with the subjunctive) leave more room for doubt. «Forse» and the future can also be combined, «Forse sarà a casa», which sounds more hesitant.

Because it signals a supposition, the future of probability is not the tool for things you have checked. If you know the document is still being reviewed, say «La scheda è ancora in revisione»; if you are only guessing, «sarà ancora in revisione» says so honestly. The present conditional is not a substitute here: «sarebbe» in this position suggests information reported by someone else, as in the news («Secondo i giornali, sarebbe a Roma»), or a result that depends on a condition.

Conceding a point: sarà anche vero, ma…

The future of probability has a second, very idiomatic job: admitting something before contradicting it. «Sarà anche vero, ma io non ci credo» means “That may well be true, but I don’t believe it”. The pattern is future + «anche» or «pure» + «ma»: «Sarà anche bravo, ma è sempre in ritardo», «Avrà pure studiato, ma all’esame non sapeva niente». The speaker grants the first point without really accepting it, so the tone is often sceptical.

On its own, «Sarà!» is a common reply that means “Maybe…” or “If you say so”, with a clear hint of doubt: «Dice che da lunedì smette di fumare. Sarà!» A longer version is «Sarà come dici tu», “It may be as you say”. These replies are friendly among people who know each other, but can sound dismissive in a formal discussion.

• Sarà anche economico, ma non mi piace per niente. · It may be cheap, but I don’t like it at all.
• Avrà pure vinto il premio, ma il suo ultimo libro è noioso. · He may well have won the prize, but his latest book is boring.
• Dice che il treno arriverà puntuale. Sarà! · She says the train will be on time. We’ll see!